The march to Malacañang is underway. The remaining supporters still with Erap say they are having a hard time talking to him. I suspect Estrada may have drunk himself to incoherence.

If he still refuses to quit, Veep Gloria will take the oath of office, as the military and the majority no longer recognize Erap as their lawful President.

A few scattered pro-Erap loyalists (about 50-100, mostly hoodlums from unsavory sectors of society) are still roaming Mendiola with sticks and lead pipes. They had better leave; crowds of thousands are about to converge on Mendiola, headed for Malacañang.

Negotiations failed to convince Estrada to officially resign. He has instead asked for 5 days to “think about it,” and is now closeted up in the Palace with the few supporters he has left. Three business days — enough time to cash a check?

The march on the Palace may be delayed, but that has not stopped some groups from beginning the march independently. Riot police have been recalled, but iron railings, barbed wire, and stubbornly noisy pro-Erap supporters still remain in the area.

The US Embassy has withdrawn support for Estrada. One of his most infamous supporters, Ernesto Maceda, is on terminal leave.

Good morning, I just woke up to check the news. It’s almost over. A panel is negotiating terms for Erap’s resignation, and opposition leaders have given him a deadline to resign: 6 am, or they march on Malacañang. He has virtually no political supporters left; just four people in the Palace, and a few hundred left of the thousands who gathered earlier in Mendiola.

The U.S. claims they will not offer asylum. Other reports say that Erap will flee to Australia, and that his entire family has already left, since the Philippines has no extradition treaty with them.

Rumors have it that Erap is still holed up in Malacañang because he is drinking himself drunk in his depression.

A lot happened in the three hours it took me to get home through all the traffic. The defection of Erap’s allies is practically complete: the military and the national police have withdrawn their support, and his cabinet members are resigning. The rally at Edsa has swollen to near-epic proportions. Erap has called for snap elections, but the opposition has rejected it.

I just heard on the radio that Erap and his family (families?) have been evacuated from Malacañang in three APC’s.

Our constitutional successor is VP Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

The full story of today’s momentous events is currently on the front page of Inquirer.net, under the headline People Power Overcomes.

This pro-Erap rally is a siege on Makati by political forces trying to instigate a class war in the heart of the Central Business District. They are planning to march on Forbes Park.

So much for peace. Erap wants a war, he’ll get one. Angelo Reyes, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, has defected to the opposition.

Fighting has broken out between pro-Erap and anti-Erap rallyists on Ayala Avenue. As anti-Erap groups gathered at Buendia and De la Rosa and started heading towards Ayala, Pro-Erap rallyists threw stones and threatened them. There’s a lot of shouting outside right now, and live TV coverage shows scattered fighting, as people throw stones and whatever else they can get their hands on. Scary.

Reports from Inquirer/24h and ABS-CBNnews.com.

A large pro-Erap rally has gathered on Ayala Avenue, right outside my office. I’m staying indoors.

The prosecutors say that they may reconsider returning to the impeachment court if Erap himself is made to testify on allegations of corruption and bribery.The defense, however, will only wait to see all the evidence before they decide whether the president should testify.

The protest rally at EDSA numbers is estimated at 250,000 people, and continues to grow with a continued influx of people from different parts of the city and the provinces. The rallyists are readying for a march on Malacañang Palace.

More and more rumors are popping up about the possibility of military intervention. One popular SMS-forward claims that as soon as a critical mass of one million people is reached, the military will side against the administration.

The human chain today was successful, and the crowd at Edsa continues to grow (estimated about 100,000 to 200,000 people already). The planned rally/march from the Edsa Shrine to Mendiola may be postponed to allow other militant anti-Erap groups to join. I worry that it may get bloody as pro-Erap and anti-Erap rallies clash.

Just a warning: in the event of a coup d’etat, I will most likely not be able to update this blog, because these military uprisings are usually accompanied by citywide power blackouts.

Anti-Erap protesters are forming a human chain of protest on Edsa at 6pm today.