Current events in Venezuela approximate my idea of a worst-case scenario in Manila: Pro-Erap anti-government riots getting out of hand and leading to a possible transfer of power — or a military junta.

The question is whether the change in leadership would culminate in a reinstatement of Erap — or one of his political cronies — as head of a new government (an unlikely scenario, which will only result in more violence). Or would the military appoint someone, or rally behind another public figure with popular appeal?